the future price of electricity, part 3

So, in June I blogged a follow-up to the weird estimate npower gave for my future electricity bills. Two months later, and I've had my next quarter's bill (differently weird, there).

The estimate seems to have gone back to a more reasonable amount this time around, so I'm no longer fearing an order of magnitude increase in power bills. I wonder what caused the original glitch?

But I'm going to keep a close eye on these estimates in the future.

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foreign power

I've just returned from a conference in France, having taken my new phone with me. Since the powered-on phone lasts about a day before it needs recharging, and since UK and French power sockets are incompatible, I needed a mains plug adaptor. I took two, and they both worked fine.

I took the cheap and cheerful "Tourist Mains Travel Adaptor". The reviews are contradictory about whether it works in France: it does. The product shown in the advert photo wouldn't, mind you, as it has no hole for the French earth pin (below left). But the one delivered to me does (below right). It's small, light, and cheap.

Because I wasn't sure if that one would work, I also took a "Swiss Travel Products World Travel Adapter": more expensive, and definitely snazzier. This does the full (UK or EU or US or Australia) to (UK or EU or US or Australia) conversion: it has four sets of sockets on one side, and buttons to extrude one of four sets of plugs on the other. Since all the plug pins can be retracted (below, left), it makes it convenient to carry. I tested the UK plug extrusion (at home), and the EU plug (below, right) in France. The slimline plug has no need for a hole to take the French earth pin.

Verdict: both work. The smaller cheaper one is fine for France. The larger, more expensive one means you need only the one device for all your foreign power needs.

So I had a fully charged phone all week, and could neurotically check my email several times a day.

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UPDATE (27 Aug 2011): they both work in Norway, too.

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the future price of electricity, part 2

In February, I blogged about a strange item on my electricity bill: npower's estimate of my next year's bill, which was nearly an order of magnitude higher than my current usage.

I've just had this quarter's bill. Same low usage, same high estimate. This made me go back and look at previous bills: had the estimates always been this high?

No. The previous two quarters had estimates of about the right amount. Earlier bills had no such estimates: it must be a new "feature". The graph here shows a plot of actual annual consumption (calculated every quarter) and npower's estimate of annual consumption.

The only data points in common (because, of course, I don't yet know my future annual consumption) are very close. Maybe npower do know something about electricity price inflation?

I'll know better in a couple of quarters time...

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The future price of electricity

I got my electricity bill last week, and I noticed a nifty new feature that's been added to it: a predicted electricity cost for the next year. And very interesting that prediction is, too.

Here is my annual expenditure on electricity for the last few years (the numbers are ridiculously low for several related reasons that I won't go into here):

2003: £45.36
2004: £33.14
2005: £38.26
2006: £51.04
2007: £55.71
2008: £48.74
2009: £48.30
2010: £56.16

The graph shows a noisy but nevertheless upward trend, consistent with inflation more than with any increased usage on my part.

What do you think my electricity company's prediction for my 2011 bill is? A prediction that I am assured is based on "actual readings", according to my account. £60? Maybe as much £70? No. It is £488.77.

So, what does npower know about short term electricity price inflation that I don't?

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